内在价值计算器

Intrinsic value is the true underlying worth of a stock based on its fundamentals — earnings, cash flows, growth, and risk. It is the price a rational investor would pay if they knew the company's entire future financial picture.

Unlike market price, which can be swayed by emotion, momentum, and short-term news, intrinsic value is anchored in measurable financial data. When the market price falls below intrinsic value, the stock may be undervalued.

Our calculator runs 7 independent valuation models — DCF, Graham, P/E, P/S, DDM, EV/EBITDA, and Dividend Yield — to give you a consensus fair value with confidence score.

1. Search for a ticker above (e.g. AAPL) or enter financial data manually.
2. Review the core inputs: EPS, Free Cash Flow, Shares Outstanding, Growth Rate, and Discount Rate.
3. Optionally adjust extended inputs for all 7 valuation models.
4. Click "Calculate Fair Value" to run the models and see the AI consensus.
5. Compare the calculated fair value to the current market price to determine if the stock is undervalued, fair, or overvalued.

Different companies suit different models. Here is a quick guide:

DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

适用：自由现金流稳定的公司

Graham Formula

适用：有长期盈利历史的公司

P/E Multiplier

适用：P/E历史清晰的公司

EV/EBITDA

适用：债务结构重要的资本密集型公司

The DCF model calculates intrinsic value by summing the present value of all future free cash flows plus a terminal value. It is the gold standard for valuing cash-flow-generating businesses.

Formula:

Where FCF = Free Cash Flow, g = growth rate, r = discount rate (WACC), TV = Terminal Value = FCF_n * (1+g_terminal) / (r - g_terminal)

Example: A company with $1B FCF, 8% growth, 9% WACC, and 2.5% terminal growth yields a fair value per share of ~$142 after adjusting for debt and cash.

Benjamin Graham's formula estimates intrinsic value using earnings per share, expected growth, and the current AAA corporate bond yield. It is simple, conservative, and battle-tested since 1962.

Formula:

Where EPS = Earnings Per Share, g = expected growth rate (%), Y = current AAA bond yield (%).

Example: A stock with $5 EPS, 8% expected growth, and 4.4% AAA yield yields a fair value of $5 * (8.5 + 16) * (4.4 / 4.4) = $122.50.

以下是我们计算器中使用的7个公式的摘要：

DCF:

Fair Value = PV(FCF) + Terminal Value - Net Debt / Shares

Graham:

FV = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) * (4.4 / Y)

P/E:

FV = Avg P/E * EPS

P/S:

FV = Avg P/S * Revenue / Shares

DDM:

FV = DPS * (1 + g) / (r - g)

EV/EBITDA:

FV = (EV/EBITDA * EBITDA - Debt + Cash) / Shares

Div Yield:

FV = DPS / Avg Dividend Yield

安全边际是计算出的合理价值与当前市场价格之间的折扣。

经验法则：寻找至少20-30%安全边际的低估股票。

让我们用真实世界近似值来演示苹果(AAPL)：

• EPS = $6.50
• FCF = $100B
• 流通股份 = 15.5B
• 增长率 = 6%
• 折现率 (WACC) = 8.5%

DCF合理价值/股 ≈ $142 Graham合理价值 ≈ $175

这些是说明性估计。请用最新财务数据验证。