Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Stock Analysis
NYQ · Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
$227.61
-3.49 (-1.51%)
AJG Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
AJG Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
AJG Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$58.35B
P/E Ratio
37.75
Forward P/E
15.31
PEG Ratio
0.68
P/B Ratio
2.46
EPS
$6.03
Dividend Yield
1.21%
52W Range
$190.75 – $313.55
Beta
0.51
Volume
0.2M
ROE
6.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Revenue Growth
30.9%
Gross Margin
43.2%
EV/EBITDA
16.79
Analyst Target
$289.67
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 37.7x. Forward P/E of 15.3x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 2.46x. EV/EBITDA sits at 16.79x. Market capitalization is $58.35B. Revenue is growing at 30.9% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -10.7%. Profit margins are 10.4%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Beta of 0.51 indicates defensive profile.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$250.00
Mean Target
$289.67
High Target
$388.00
Based on 18 analysts
About Arthur J. Gallagher
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. The company operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. Its Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retail brokers and other non-affiliated brokers in the placement of specialized and hard-to-place insurance; and acts as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent, and managing general underwriter for distributing specialized insurance coverages to underwriting enterprises. This segment performs activities, including marketing, underwriting, issuing policies, collecting premiums, appointing and supervising other agents, paying claims, and negotiating reinsurance; and offers services in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placement, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement and administration services; and claims management, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company offers its services through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. It serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, as well as underwriting enterprises. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
AJG Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
OvervaluedBest for
Growth-oriented investorsWatch out for
Premium valuation, Earnings declineNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $85.59 by approximately 62.4%. Trailing P/E: 37.7x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 10.4% and return on equity of 6.7%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 30.9% and earnings growth of -10.7%. Risk profile: defensive beta of 0.51. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Overvalued
P/E 37.7x
Price is above what fundamentals suggest.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 30.9%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Risk
Low
Beta 0.51
Movement is likely to track the broader market.
Valuation Snapshot
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $85.59 by approximately 62.4%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 37.7x. Forward P/E of 15.3x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-sales is 3.9x. Price-to-book is 2.5x. EV/EBITDA sits at 16.8x. Market capitalization is $58.35B.
Why it matters: Paying a premium works only if the company keeps growing faster than expected.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 30.9% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -10.7%. Profit margins are 10.4%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Return on assets is 2.3%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 0.51 indicates defensive profile. Net debt position is $12.72B.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $289.67 implies 27.3% upside. Target range spans $250.00 to $388.00. 18 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Investor Fit
Premium valuation is supported by above-average growth, potentially fitting growth-oriented strategies.
Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
AJG Overvalued
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $85.59 by approximately 62.4%.
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs AJG stock overvalued right now?
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About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.