Arch Capital (ACGL) Stock Analysis
NMS · Financial Services · Insurance - Diversified
$95.17
+0.51 (+0.54%)
ACGL Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
ACGL Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
ACGL Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$32.47B
P/E Ratio
7.45
Forward P/E
9.76
PEG Ratio
1.05
P/B Ratio
1.39
EPS
$12.78
Dividend Yield
—
52W Range
$82.45 – $107.09
Beta
0.28
Volume
0.4M
ROE
19.9%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Revenue Growth
-10.5%
Gross Margin
38.8%
EV/EBITDA
5.90
Analyst Target
$111.66
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 7.4x. Forward P/E of 9.8x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-book is 1.39x. EV/EBITDA sits at 5.90x. Market capitalization is $32.47B. Revenue is contracting at -10.5% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -7.1%. Profit margins are 24.4%. Return on equity is 19.9%. Beta of 0.28 indicates defensive profile.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$95.00
Mean Target
$111.66
High Target
$134.00
Based on 19 analysts
About Arch Capital
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
ACGL Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
UndervaluedBest for
Value-oriented investorsWatch out for
Revenue contraction, Earnings declineNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $182.68 by approximately 92.0%. Trailing P/E: 7.4x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 24.4% and return on equity of 19.9%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of -10.5% and earnings growth of -7.1%. Risk profile: defensive beta of 0.28. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Undervalued
P/E 7.4x
Price sits below our estimate of fair value.
Growth
Contracting
Rev -10.5%
Top-line revenue is shrinking.
Risk
Low
Beta 0.28
Movement is likely to track the broader market.
Valuation Snapshot
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $182.68 by approximately 92.0%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 7.4x. Forward P/E of 9.8x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-sales is 1.7x. Price-to-book is 1.4x. EV/EBITDA sits at 5.9x. Market capitalization is $32.47B.
Why it matters: Buying below fair value can create a margin of safety, but always check earnings quality.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is contracting at -10.5% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -7.1%. Profit margins are 24.4%. Return on equity is 19.9%. Return on assets is 4.1%.
Why it matters: Falling revenue can signal losing market share or industry headwinds.
Risk Profile
Beta of 0.28 indicates defensive profile. Net debt position is $-177999872.00.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $111.66 implies 17.3% upside. Target range spans $95.00 to $134.00. 19 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Investor Fit
The combination of undervaluation and moderate risk may suit value-oriented investors. Free cash flow yield of 18.9% is attractive for cash-flow-focused investors.
Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
ACGL Undervalued
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $182.68 by approximately 92.0%.
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs ACGL stock overvalued right now?
ValuationWhat is ACGL fair value based on current fundamentals?
RiskHow risky is ACGL compared with other stocks?
GrowthIs ACGL still growing?
AnalystWhat do analysts think about ACGL?
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for ACGL?
Related Stocks
About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.