理論株価計算機

Intrinsic value is the true underlying worth of a stock based on its fundamentals — earnings, cash flows, growth, and risk. It is the price a rational investor would pay if they knew the company's entire future financial picture.

Unlike market price, which can be swayed by emotion, momentum, and short-term news, intrinsic value is anchored in measurable financial data. When the market price falls below intrinsic value, the stock may be undervalued.

Our calculator runs 7 independent valuation models — DCF, Graham, P/E, P/S, DDM, EV/EBITDA, and Dividend Yield — to give you a consensus fair value with confidence score.

1. Search for a ticker above (e.g. AAPL) or enter financial data manually.
2. Review the core inputs: EPS, Free Cash Flow, Shares Outstanding, Growth Rate, and Discount Rate.
3. Optionally adjust extended inputs for all 7 valuation models.
4. Click "Calculate Fair Value" to run the models and see the AI consensus.
5. Compare the calculated fair value to the current market price to determine if the stock is undervalued, fair, or overvalued.

Different companies suit different models. Here is a quick guide:

DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

最適：安定的なフリーキャッシュフローを持つ企業

Graham Formula

最適：長期の利益歴を持つ企業

P/E Multiplier

最適：明確なP/E履歴を持つ企業

EV/EBITDA

最適：負債構造が重要な資本集約型企業

The DCF model calculates intrinsic value by summing the present value of all future free cash flows plus a terminal value. It is the gold standard for valuing cash-flow-generating businesses.

Formula:

Where FCF = Free Cash Flow, g = growth rate, r = discount rate (WACC), TV = Terminal Value = FCF_n * (1+g_terminal) / (r - g_terminal)

Example: A company with $1B FCF, 8% growth, 9% WACC, and 2.5% terminal growth yields a fair value per share of ~$142 after adjusting for debt and cash.

Benjamin Graham's formula estimates intrinsic value using earnings per share, expected growth, and the current AAA corporate bond yield. It is simple, conservative, and battle-tested since 1962.

Formula:

Where EPS = Earnings Per Share, g = expected growth rate (%), Y = current AAA bond yield (%).

Example: A stock with $5 EPS, 8% expected growth, and 4.4% AAA yield yields a fair value of $5 * (8.5 + 16) * (4.4 / 4.4) = $122.50.

計算機で使用される7つの式の概要：

DCF:

Fair Value = PV(FCF) + Terminal Value - Net Debt / Shares

Graham:

FV = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) * (4.4 / Y)

P/E:

FV = Avg P/E * EPS

P/S:

FV = Avg P/S * Revenue / Shares

DDM:

FV = DPS * (1 + g) / (r - g)

EV/EBITDA:

FV = (EV/EBITDA * EBITDA - Debt + Cash) / Shares

Div Yield:

FV = DPS / Avg Dividend Yield

安全余裕は、計算された適正価値と現在の市場価格の差の割引率です。

経験則：割安銘柄は最低20-30%の安全余裕を目指しましょう。

Apple（AAPL）を実際の近似値で見ていきましょう：

• EPS = $6.50
• FCF = $100B
• 発行済株式数 = 15.5B
• 成長率 = 6%
• 割引率 (WACC) = 8.5%

DCF適正価値/株 ≈ $142 Graham適正価値 ≈ $175

これらは説明用の概算値です。最新の財務データで確認してください。