UPS Stock Analysis
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
$93.47
-0.49 (-0.52%)
UPS Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
UPS Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
UPS Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$79.52B
P/E Ratio
17.37
Forward P/E
11.58
PEG Ratio
1.34
P/B Ratio
5.28
EPS
$5.38
Dividend Yield
6.98%
52W Range
$82.00 – $122.41
Beta
1.04
Volume
1.3M
ROE
29.6%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Revenue Growth
7.6%
Gross Margin
22.4%
EV/EBITDA
8.61
Analyst Target
$115.81
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 17.4x. Forward P/E of 11.6x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 5.28x. EV/EBITDA sits at 8.61x. Market capitalization is $79.52B. Revenue is growing at 7.6% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -53.0%. Profit margins are 5.1%. Return on equity is 29.6%. Beta of 1.04 indicates market-average volatility.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$76.00
Mean Target
$115.81
High Target
$135.00
Based on 26 analysts
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
UPS Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
Fairly ValuedBest for
General investorWatch out for
Earnings declineNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) trades near our multi-model fair value estimate of $86.07 by approximately 7.9%. Trailing P/E: 17.4x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 5.1% and return on equity of 29.6%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 7.6% and earnings growth of -53.0%. Risk profile: beta of 1.04. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Fairly Valued
P/E 17.4x
Price is close to fair value estimate.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 7.6%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Valuation Snapshot
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) trades near our multi-model fair value estimate of $86.07 by approximately 7.9%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 17.4x. Forward P/E of 11.6x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-sales is 0.9x. Price-to-book is 5.3x. EV/EBITDA sits at 8.6x. Market capitalization is $79.52B.
Why it matters: A fairly valued stock means you are paying roughly what the business is worth today.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 7.6% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -53.0%. Profit margins are 5.1%. Return on equity is 29.6%. Return on assets is 7.3%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 1.04 indicates market-average volatility. Net debt position is $24.02B.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $115.81 implies 23.9% upside. Target range spans $76.00 to $135.00. 26 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Investor Fit
Free cash flow yield of 6.0% is attractive for cash-flow-focused investors.
Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
UPS Fairly Valued
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) trades near our multi-model fair value estimate of $86.07 by approximately 7.9%.
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs UPS stock overvalued right now?
ValuationWhat is UPS fair value based on current fundamentals?
RiskHow risky is UPS compared with other stocks?
GrowthIs UPS still growing?
AnalystWhat do analysts think about UPS?
DividendDoes UPS pay a dividend?
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for UPS?
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About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.