ULTA Stock Analysis
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
$544.87
-0.34 (-0.06%)
ULTA Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
ULTA Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
ULTA Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$23.30B
P/E Ratio
19.83
Forward P/E
16.98
PEG Ratio
1.96
P/B Ratio
8.58
EPS
$27.48
Dividend Yield
—
52W Range
$443.60 – $714.97
Beta
0.85
Volume
0.1M
ROE
46.1%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Revenue Growth
8.9%
Gross Margin
43.1%
EV/EBITDA
13.25
Analyst Target
$630.64
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.8x. Forward P/E of 17.0x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 8.58x. EV/EBITDA sits at 13.25x. Market capitalization is $23.30B. Revenue is growing at 8.9% on a trailing basis. Earnings are expanding at 13.3%. Profit margins are 9.3%. Return on equity is 46.1%. Beta of 0.85 indicates market-average volatility.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$500.00
Mean Target
$630.64
High Target
$731.00
Based on 25 analysts
About ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
ULTA Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
OvervaluedBest for
General investorWatch out for
Premium valuationNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $387.24 by approximately 28.9%. Trailing P/E: 19.8x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 9.3% and return on equity of 46.1%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 8.9% and earnings growth of 13.3%. Risk profile: beta of 0.85. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Overvalued
P/E 19.8x
Price is above what fundamentals suggest.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 8.9%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Valuation Snapshot
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $387.24 by approximately 28.9%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.8x. Forward P/E of 17.0x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-sales is 1.8x. Price-to-book is 8.6x. EV/EBITDA sits at 13.2x. Market capitalization is $23.30B.
Why it matters: Paying a premium works only if the company keeps growing faster than expected.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 8.9% on a trailing basis. Earnings are expanding at 13.3%. Profit margins are 9.3%. Return on equity is 46.1%. Return on assets is 14.8%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 0.85 indicates market-average volatility. Net debt position is $2.31B.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $630.64 implies 15.7% upside. Target range spans $500.00 to $731.00. 25 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
ULTA Overvalued
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $387.24 by approximately 28.9%.
Frequently Asked Questions
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About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.