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TSCO Stock Analysis

NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

$32.03

-0.24 (-0.73%)

TSCO Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals

TSCO Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals

TSCO Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile

Key Financial Ratios

Market Cap

$16.69B

P/E Ratio

16.68

Forward P/E

15.64

PEG Ratio

2.03

P/B Ratio

6.38

EPS

$1.92

Dividend Yield

2.97%

52W Range

$28.36 – $58.21

Beta

0.47

Volume

2.6M

ROE

39.5%

Profit Margin

6.4%

Revenue Growth

2.3%

Gross Margin

36.5%

EV/EBITDA

11.97

Analyst Target

$35.48

The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 16.7x. Forward P/E of 15.6x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 6.38x. EV/EBITDA sits at 11.97x. Market capitalization is $16.69B. Revenue is growing at 2.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -15.0%. Profit margins are 6.4%. Return on equity is 39.5%. Beta of 0.47 indicates defensive profile.

Analyst Consensus

Recommendation

Buy

Low Target

$28.00

Mean Target

$35.48

High Target

$42.00

Based on 27 analysts

About TSCO

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E. Schmidt, Retriever, Country Lane, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Country Tuff, Strive, Dumor, Traveller, Farm Table, Treeline, Groundwork, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Huskee, Untamed, JobSmart, and Impeckable brand names. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. Tractor Supply Company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

United States54,000 employeesWebsite ↗

TSCO Deep Dive Analysis

Bottom Line

Verdict

Overvalued

Best for

General investor

Watch out for

Premium valuation, Earnings decline

Non-zero inputs

4/5

Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.23 by approximately 24.4%. Trailing P/E: 16.7x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 6.4% and return on equity of 39.5%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 2.3% and earnings growth of -15.0%. Risk profile: defensive beta of 0.47. Consensus: buy.

Valuation, Growth & Risk

Valuation

Overvalued

P/E 16.7x

Price is above what fundamentals suggest.

Growth

Stable

Rev 2.3%

Revenue is moving sideways.

Risk

Low

Beta 0.47

Movement is likely to track the broader market.

Valuation Snapshot

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.23 by approximately 24.4%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 16.7x. Forward P/E of 15.6x indicates stable forward expectations. Price-to-sales is 1.1x. Price-to-book is 6.4x. EV/EBITDA sits at 12.0x. Market capitalization is $16.69B.

Why it matters: Paying a premium works only if the company keeps growing faster than expected.

Growth & Profitability

Revenue is growing at 2.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -15.0%. Profit margins are 6.4%. Return on equity is 39.5%. Return on assets is 7.8%.

Why it matters: Stable revenue is fine, but watch for margin pressure that could limit profit growth.

Risk Profile

Beta of 0.47 indicates defensive profile. Net debt position is $6.31B.

Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.

Analyst Context

Analyst consensus target of $35.48 implies 10.8% upside. Target range spans $28.00 to $42.00. 27 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.

Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.

Data Methodology & Sources

Market Data (Facts)

  • Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
  • P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
  • Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
  • Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)

QuantSoar Model (Derived)

  • Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
  • Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
  • Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
  • Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.

Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.

TSCO Overvalued

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.23 by approximately 24.4%.

Frequently Asked Questions

ValuationIs TSCO stock overvalued right now?
Based on our discounted cash flow and relative valuation models, TSCO appears to trade above fair value by approximately 24.4%. This suggests the market may be pricing in elevated growth expectations or sentiment premiums.
ValuationWhat is TSCO fair value based on current fundamentals?
Our fair value estimate for TSCO is $24.23, derived from discounted cash flow, dividend discount, and relative valuation multiples. The estimate assumes a discount rate of 9.0% and terminal growth of 2.5%.
RiskHow risky is TSCO compared with other stocks?
Risk profile for TSCO: a beta of 0.47 suggests a defensive profile. Investors should weigh macro exposure against their own risk tolerance.
GrowthIs TSCO still growing?
Latest trailing metrics show revenue growth of 2.3% and earnings contraction of 15.0%. Profit margins are 6.4%.
AnalystWhat do analysts think about TSCO?
Analyst consensus target is $35.48, implying 10.8% upside. The street recommendation is "buy".
DividendDoes TSCO pay a dividend?
Yes. TSCO currently offers a dividend yield of 3.0%.
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for TSCO?
Key catalysts include Consumer Cyclical sector dynamics, interest rate shifts, and company-specific earnings surprises. Monitor macro risk scores and analyst estimate revisions for early signals.

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About the Author

Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder

Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.

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Investment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC

Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.