PKG Stock Analysis
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
$235.25
-1.93 (-0.82%)
PKG Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
PKG Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
PKG Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$20.96B
P/E Ratio
30.51
Forward P/E
17.93
PEG Ratio
1.52
P/B Ratio
4.47
EPS
$7.71
Dividend Yield
2.53%
52W Range
$191.50 – $259.98
Beta
0.80
Volume
0.0M
ROE
14.9%
Profit Margin
7.3%
Revenue Growth
14.7%
Gross Margin
21.4%
EV/EBITDA
12.41
Analyst Target
$259.30
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.5x. Forward P/E of 17.9x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 4.47x. EV/EBITDA sits at 12.41x. Market capitalization is $20.96B. Revenue is growing at 14.7% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -19.5%. Profit margins are 7.3%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Beta of 0.80 indicates defensive profile.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$167.00
Mean Target
$259.30
High Target
$320.00
Based on 10 analysts
About PKG
Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.
PKG Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
OvervaluedBest for
General investorWatch out for
Premium valuation, Earnings declineNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $109.33 by approximately 53.5%. Trailing P/E: 30.5x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 7.3% and return on equity of 14.9%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 14.7% and earnings growth of -19.5%. Risk profile: defensive beta of 0.80. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Overvalued
P/E 30.5x
Price is above what fundamentals suggest.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 14.7%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Risk
Low
Beta 0.80
Movement is likely to track the broader market.
Valuation Snapshot
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $109.33 by approximately 53.5%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.5x. Forward P/E of 17.9x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-sales is 2.2x. Price-to-book is 4.5x. EV/EBITDA sits at 12.4x. Market capitalization is $20.96B.
Why it matters: Paying a premium works only if the company keeps growing faster than expected.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 14.7% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -19.5%. Profit margins are 7.3%. Return on equity is 14.9%. Return on assets is 8.3%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 0.80 indicates defensive profile. Net debt position is $3.81B.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $259.30 implies 10.2% upside. Target range spans $167.00 to $320.00. 10 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
PKG Overvalued
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $109.33 by approximately 53.5%.
Frequently Asked Questions
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About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.