ADM Stock Analysis
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
$81.77
+0.64 (+0.79%)
ADM Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
ADM Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
ADM Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$39.41B
P/E Ratio
22.34
Forward P/E
14.42
PEG Ratio
1.00
P/B Ratio
1.67
EPS
$3.66
Dividend Yield
2.56%
52W Range
$55.58 – $88.75
Beta
0.61
Volume
0.1M
ROE
7.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Revenue Growth
7.2%
Gross Margin
6.9%
EV/EBITDA
15.91
Analyst Target
$80.40
The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.3x. Forward P/E of 14.4x implies earnings expansion expected. Price-to-book is 1.67x. EV/EBITDA sits at 15.91x. Market capitalization is $39.41B. Revenue is growing at 7.2% on a trailing basis. Earnings are expanding at 315.6%. Profit margins are 2.2%. Return on equity is 7.6%. Beta of 0.61 indicates defensive profile.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Low Target
$60.00
Mean Target
$80.40
High Target
$95.00
Based on 10 analysts
About ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
ADM Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
OvervaluedBest for
General investorWatch out for
Premium valuationNon-zero inputs
4/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $57.77 by approximately 29.4%. Trailing P/E: 22.3x. Profitability signals include profit margin of 2.2% and return on equity of 7.6%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 7.2% and earnings growth of 315.6%. Risk profile: defensive beta of 0.61. Consensus: hold.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Overvalued
P/E 22.3x
Price is above what fundamentals suggest.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 7.2%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Risk
Low
Beta 0.61
Movement is likely to track the broader market.
Valuation Snapshot
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $57.77 by approximately 29.4%. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.3x. Forward P/E of 14.4x suggests earnings compression ahead. Price-to-sales is 0.5x. Price-to-book is 1.7x. EV/EBITDA sits at 15.9x. Market capitalization is $39.41B.
Why it matters: Paying a premium works only if the company keeps growing faster than expected.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 7.2% on a trailing basis. Earnings are expanding at 315.6%. Profit margins are 2.2%. Return on equity is 7.6%. Return on assets is 2.3%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 0.61 indicates defensive profile. Net debt position is $8.25B.
Why it matters: Lower risk means steadier returns, but often with less upside in bull markets.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $80.40 implies 1.7% downside. Target range spans $60.00 to $95.00. 10 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: hold.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Investor Fit
Free cash flow yield of 10.7% is attractive for cash-flow-focused investors.
Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
ADM Overvalued
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) trades above our multi-model fair value estimate of $57.77 by approximately 29.4%.
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs ADM stock overvalued right now?
ValuationWhat is ADM fair value based on current fundamentals?
RiskHow risky is ADM compared with other stocks?
GrowthIs ADM still growing?
AnalystWhat do analysts think about ADM?
DividendDoes ADM pay a dividend?
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for ADM?
Related Stocks
About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.