AAL Stock Analysis
NMS · Industrials · Airlines
$13.36
-0.52 (-3.71%)
AAL Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals
AAL Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals
AAL Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile
Key Financial Ratios
Market Cap
$8.84B
P/E Ratio
—
Forward P/E
6.76
PEG Ratio
0.10
P/B Ratio
-2.23
EPS
$-0.49
Dividend Yield
—
52W Range
$10.09 – $18.79
Beta
1.33
Volume
2.3M
ROE
—
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Revenue Growth
16.3%
Gross Margin
21.2%
EV/EBITDA
10.84
Analyst Target
$17.33
Forward P/E of 6.8x suggests earnings compression ahead. EV/EBITDA sits at 10.84x. Market capitalization is $8.84B. Revenue is growing at 16.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -88.2%. Beta of 1.33 indicates elevated market sensitivity.
Analyst Consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Low Target
$10.00
Mean Target
$17.33
High Target
$25.00
Based on 23 analysts
About AAL
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
AAL Deep Dive Analysis
Bottom Line
Verdict
UndervaluedBest for
Higher-risk tolerance investorsWatch out for
High volatility, Earnings declineNon-zero inputs
3/5Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 16.3% and earnings growth of -88.2%. Risk profile: elevated market beta of 1.33. Consensus: buy.
Valuation, Growth & Risk
Valuation
Undervalued
Price sits below our estimate of fair value.
Growth
Expanding
Rev 16.3%
Revenue is outpacing the market.
Risk
Elevated
Beta 1.33
Expect bigger swings than the market.
Valuation Snapshot
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%. Forward P/E of 6.8x indicates stable forward expectations. Price-to-sales is 0.2x. EV/EBITDA sits at 10.8x. Market capitalization is $8.84B.
Why it matters: Buying below fair value can create a margin of safety, but always check earnings quality.
Growth & Profitability
Revenue is growing at 16.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -88.2%. Return on assets is 1.1%.
Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.
Risk Profile
Beta of 1.33 indicates elevated market sensitivity. Net debt position is $27.37B.
Why it matters: A riskier stock can fall more in a downturn. Make sure your portfolio can handle the volatility.
Analyst Context
Analyst consensus target of $17.33 implies 29.7% upside. Target range spans $10.00 to $25.00. 23 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.
Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.
Investor Fit
The margin of safety exists but elevated volatility may require a higher risk tolerance.
Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.
Data Methodology & Sources
Market Data (Facts)
- Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
- P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
- Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
- Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)
QuantSoar Model (Derived)
- Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
- Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
- Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
- Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.
Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.
AAL Undervalued
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%.
Frequently Asked Questions
ValuationIs AAL stock overvalued right now?
ValuationWhat is AAL fair value based on current fundamentals?
RiskHow risky is AAL compared with other stocks?
GrowthIs AAL still growing?
AnalystWhat do analysts think about AAL?
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for AAL?
Related Stocks
About the Author
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder
Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.
Connect on LinkedInInvestment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC
Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.