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AAL Stock Analysis

NMS · Industrials · Airlines

$13.36

-0.52 (-3.71%)

AAL Interactive Price Chart & Trading Signals

AAL Stock Snapshot — Valuation, Risk & Technical Signals

AAL Key Fundamentals, Analyst Targets & Company Profile

Key Financial Ratios

Market Cap

$8.84B

P/E Ratio

—

Forward P/E

6.76

PEG Ratio

0.10

P/B Ratio

-2.23

EPS

$-0.49

Dividend Yield

—

52W Range

$10.09 – $18.79

Beta

1.33

Volume

2.3M

ROE

—

Profit Margin

-0.6%

Revenue Growth

16.3%

Gross Margin

21.2%

EV/EBITDA

10.84

Analyst Target

$17.33

Forward P/E of 6.8x suggests earnings compression ahead. EV/EBITDA sits at 10.84x. Market capitalization is $8.84B. Revenue is growing at 16.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -88.2%. Beta of 1.33 indicates elevated market sensitivity.

Analyst Consensus

Recommendation

Buy

Low Target

$10.00

Mean Target

$17.33

High Target

$25.00

Based on 23 analysts

About AAL

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

United States143,400 employeesWebsite ↗

AAL Deep Dive Analysis

Bottom Line

Verdict

Undervalued

Best for

Higher-risk tolerance investors

Watch out for

High volatility, Earnings decline

Non-zero inputs

3/5

Counts non-zero values for price, P/E, beta, macro risk, and revenue growth; zero may mean unavailable or be a genuine zero.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%. Recent growth metrics show revenue growth of 16.3% and earnings growth of -88.2%. Risk profile: elevated market beta of 1.33. Consensus: buy.

Valuation, Growth & Risk

Valuation

Undervalued

Price sits below our estimate of fair value.

Growth

Expanding

Rev 16.3%

Revenue is outpacing the market.

Risk

Elevated

Beta 1.33

Expect bigger swings than the market.

Valuation Snapshot

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%. Forward P/E of 6.8x indicates stable forward expectations. Price-to-sales is 0.2x. EV/EBITDA sits at 10.8x. Market capitalization is $8.84B.

Why it matters: Buying below fair value can create a margin of safety, but always check earnings quality.

Growth & Profitability

Revenue is growing at 16.3% on a trailing basis. Earnings are compressing at -88.2%. Return on assets is 1.1%.

Why it matters: Growing revenue with healthy margins usually means the business is gaining market share or pricing power.

Risk Profile

Beta of 1.33 indicates elevated market sensitivity. Net debt position is $27.37B.

Why it matters: A riskier stock can fall more in a downturn. Make sure your portfolio can handle the volatility.

Analyst Context

Analyst consensus target of $17.33 implies 29.7% upside. Target range spans $10.00 to $25.00. 23 analysts cover the stock. Consensus recommendation: buy.

Why it matters: Analyst targets reflect what professionals expect over 12 months. A wide gap between price and target can mean the market disagrees with the consensus.

Investor Fit

The margin of safety exists but elevated volatility may require a higher risk tolerance.

Takeaway: Match the stock's risk-reward profile with your own goals and time horizon. No single metric tells the whole story.

Data Methodology & Sources

Market Data (Facts)

  • Price, volume, and market cap: Yahoo Finance (may be delayed)
  • P/E, EPS, revenue, and debt: Yahoo Finance fundamentals
  • Analyst estimates: Yahoo Finance (coverage and update times vary)
  • Insider transactions: Yahoo Finance (reporting may be delayed)

QuantSoar Model (Derived)

  • Fair value: available outputs from seven models; outliers are filtered using MAD (k=3.5), then combined with fixed model weights.
  • Margin of Safety = (Fair Value − Displayed Price) / Displayed Price × 100
  • Composite Score: 40% Value + 30% Momentum + 30% Risk
  • Verdict Gauge: Base 50 + Valuation (up to ±25) + Whale sentiment (up to ±10) + Insider buying (+5) + Macro risk (up to ±10) + Technical signal (up to ±10). Analyst consensus is separate.

Model outputs are estimates based on available data and are not investment advice. Cross-check with primary sources before making investment decisions.

AAL Undervalued

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) trades below our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 by approximately 80.5%.

Frequently Asked Questions

ValuationIs AAL stock overvalued right now?
Our multi-model fair value estimate of $24.11 suggests AAL may be undervalued by approximately 80.5% at the current price of $13.36.
ValuationWhat is AAL fair value based on current fundamentals?
Our fair value estimate for AAL is $24.11, derived from discounted cash flow, dividend discount, and relative valuation multiples. The estimate assumes a discount rate of 9.0% and terminal growth of 2.5%.
RiskHow risky is AAL compared with other stocks?
Risk profile for AAL: a beta of 1.33 indicates above-average market sensitivity. Investors should weigh macro exposure against their own risk tolerance.
GrowthIs AAL still growing?
Latest trailing metrics show revenue growth of 16.3% and earnings contraction of 88.2%. Profit margins are not available.
AnalystWhat do analysts think about AAL?
Analyst consensus target is $17.33, implying 29.7% upside. The street recommendation is "buy".
CatalystWhat could change the investment case for AAL?
Key catalysts include Industrials sector dynamics, interest rate shifts, and company-specific earnings surprises. Monitor macro risk scores and analyst estimate revisions for early signals.

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About the Author

Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) — Founder

Phasakorn Traklang (Peach) is the founder of QuantSoar, bringing expertise in SEO, web development, and technical analytics to build an AI-powered investment platform accessible to retail investors worldwide.

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Investment Disclaimer: Tax treatment can depend on tax residence, account type, and tax year. This information is general and is not personal tax or investment advice. SEC

Data: Yahoo Finance / SEC EDGAR / Alpha Vantage / Finnhub. AI outputs verified against source data.